The claim ledger · hard-numeric checks
Every checkable claim, with a due date.
Each row is a specific, numeric claim tied to a view — something the next filing either bears out or doesn't, by a date set in advance. Open claims sit at the top, soonest due first.
3Resolved
2Confirmed
1Contradicted
3Open
A confirmed claim means the numbers bore it out, not that the view was right — the call is graded separately, on its own 12-month horizon.
| Claim | Name | Metric | What was claimed | Due by | Status | How it read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-0001 made Apr 20, 2026 view ONR-0006 | ARCC | Price / NAV | ARCC trades below NAV (P/NAV under 1.00x) as of the next reported quarter-end. ARCC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR) | Aug 15, 2026 | Open | awaiting the next filing |
| CLM-0002 made Apr 20, 2026 view ONR-0006 | ARCC | Non-accruals | Non-accruals stay at or below 2.0% of fair value through the next two quarters. ARCC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR) | Oct 31, 2026 | Open | awaiting the next filing |
| CLM-0005 made May 30, 2026 view ONR-0005 | HTGC | Non-accruals | HTGC non-accruals rise above 2.0% of cost in either of the next two quarters. HTGC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR) | Dec 31, 2026 | Open | awaiting the next filing |
| CLM-0003 made Jun 15, 2025 view ONR-0003 | OBDC | Price / NAV | OBDC's premium to NAV narrows to 1.05x or below within the 12-month horizon. OBDC 10-Q (SEC EDGAR) | Jun 15, 2026 | Confirmed Jun 15, 2026 | At the horizon date the reported P/NAV stood at ~1.01x, inside the 1.05x level named in the claim. The observed multiple matched the figure written down at issue. |
| CLM-0004 made Jun 15, 2025 view ONR-0003 | OBDC | Total return vs BIZD | OBDC's 12-month total return lands behind BIZD over the horizon. Total-return series, dividend-adjusted vs BIZD | Jun 15, 2026 | Confirmed Jun 15, 2026 | Dividend-adjusted total return came in at -4.2% against BIZD's +6.1% — the name finished behind the benchmark, as the claim recorded. |
| CLM-0006 made Jan 12, 2026 view ONR-0001 | ARCC | NII / dividend coverage | Net investment income covers the dividend at 1.05x or better in the next reported quarter. ARCC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR) | Apr 30, 2026 | Contradicted Apr 30, 2026 | Reported NII covered the dividend at ~1.0x for the quarter, short of the 1.05x figure named in the claim. The observed coverage came in under the level written down. |