Pre-registered · ruleset v1
The protocol
The rules are committed up front and do not change quietly. Any change is logged, and every past call keeps being graded under the rules in force when it was made.
The universe
Coverage is a small, fixed list of Private Credit BDCs the publisher knows well. The launch roster:
ARCC— Ares Capital CorporationOBDC— Blue Owl Capital CorporationHTGC— Hercules Capital, Inc.
Names are added or dropped only as a logged, dated event — never silently.
The five statuses
- Undervalued — priced below what the credit and coverage justify.
- Overvalued — priced above what the credit and coverage justify.
- Fairly valued — priced about right for the risk it carries.
- No call — not enough to take a side; ships a claim to watch, what would change the view, and a review date.
- Watchlist — on deck; same required fields as a no call.
No-calls are graded too. Declining to call is a decision, and the record tracks it like any other.
Scoring
- Primary horizon: 12 months from the date a view is issued.
- Benchmark: BIZD, the BDC index ETF, measured benchmark-relative.
- Basis: total return, dividend-adjusted — because for BDCs the dividend is most of the return.
- No short-term, price-based scoring and no price-move auto-expiry. Price does not overrule the thesis before the horizon.
The dumb-screen baseline
Every call is shown next to a deliberately simple, free alternative: just holding BIZD. If the record can't beat that over time, it says so.
Integrity
- The record is append-only. A changed view is a new, dated entry — the old one stays visible, untouched.
- Rule changes are logged publicly; old calls keep their original ruleset.
- Confidence is recorded on every call from day one, but not displayed yet.
- Claim-checks use neutral, observational language — never a verdict word like "false".