OnRecord

A public, graded record of valuation views on Private Credit BDCs — every call timestamped, sourced, and scored against just holding the index.

Horizon: 12 months Benchmark: BIZD (BDC index ETF) Baseline: just hold BIZD Scoring: total return, dividend-adjusted No-calls are graded too.

The Record · live scorecard

Every call, on the record — graded against the dumb screen.

Each entry is a dated valuation view on one BDC, with the numbers and the exact source behind it. Views resolve on a 12-month horizon against BIZD; until then they read as pending. Nothing here is investment advice.

Entry Name Status The call Key number vs BIZD Source
ONR-0005
May 30, 2026
 HTGC Hercules Capital, Inc. No call Venture-debt credit signals are mixed this quarter — not enough either way to take a side yet. non-accruals ~1.8% of cost · NII/dividend ~1.0x pending
HTGC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR)
ONR-0006
Apr 20, 2026
 ARCC Ares Capital Corporation Undervalued A post-Q1 selloff pushed the stock to a discount even though dividend coverage held; the market looks to be over-penalizing a small, well-flagged uptick in non-accruals. P/NAV ~0.93x · non-accruals ~1.6% of fair value pending
ARCC Q1 10-Q (SEC EDGAR)
ONR-0001
Jan 12, 2026
 ARCC Ares Capital Corporation Fairly valued Trades close to NAV with the dividend comfortably covered by net investment income; priced about right for the credit risk it carries. P/NAV ~1.05x · NII/dividend ~1.1x pending
ARCC 10-K (SEC EDGAR)
ONR-0003
Jun 15, 2025
 OBDC Blue Owl Capital Corporation Overvalued A premium to NAV looked hard to justify given spread-compression risk and a richer valuation than peers with similar credit. P/NAV ~1.12x at issue -10.3% resolved Jun 15, 2026
OBDC 10-Q (SEC EDGAR)